A new poll on Tasmanian voting intentions shows support has fallen for both the governing Liberal party and the opposition Labor party, while One Nation has emerged as a significant force. The DemosAU poll, conducted between June 21 and July 6, places the Liberals’ primary support at 28 per cent, according to reporting on the data.
The poll of 999 Tasmanian voters found that Labor and One Nation were tied for second place on 21 per cent each. This was the first time DemosAU had included One Nation as an option in its Tasmanian state poll, with the party recently applying for official registration with the Tasmanian Electoral Commission.
Support for the Greens was recorded at 14 per cent, with independents at 12 per cent and other minor parties accounting for the remainder.
Compared to DemosAU’s previous poll in February 2026, the results show a seven-point drop for the Liberals and a two-point drop for Labor. The combined primary vote for the two major parties now sits at 49 per cent.
The poll comes a year after the July 2025 state election, which resulted in the Liberal Party forming a minority government. At that election, Labor recorded its lowest primary vote in over a century.
In the head-to-head contest for preferred premier, the latest DemosAU poll found Liberal Premier Jeremy Rockliff leads Labor leader Josh Willie by 41 per cent to 32 per cent. Mr Rockliff’s rating was down two points since the February poll, while Mr Willie’s was unchanged.
The poll also asked voters to name the biggest issue facing Tasmania. Housing affordability and homelessness was the top concern for 25 per cent of respondents, followed closely by the cost of living at 24 per cent and the health system at 14 per cent.
The ABC has published its own analysis of what these polling numbers could mean for Tasmanian politics, which can be read on their website.