After a period of strong growth fueled by mainland arrivals, Tasmania is now facing a significant demographic turning point, with official projections indicating the state is on track for a natural population decline.
According to the Tasmanian Department of Treasury and Finance’s latest 30-year projections, deaths are expected to outnumber births in the state as early as 2032. From that point, any population growth will depend entirely on attracting and retaining new residents from interstate and overseas.
This marks a sharp reversal from the pre-pandemic years when Tasmania’s population was growing faster than the national average. Recent data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) confirms the slowdown, showing Tasmania had the country’s lowest growth rate in the year to September 2025, at just 0.3 per cent. The state even recorded a slight population decline in the June 2024 quarter, the first in nearly three years, as reported by demographer Dr. Lisa Denny.
The shift is primarily driven by an ageing population, a trend identified in Treasury reports and demographic analysis. Projections show a significant increase in the retirement-age population over the next decade, coupled with a decrease in the number of people under working age.
A report authored by Dr. Denny for the Local Government Association of Tasmania noted that if current low-growth patterns continue, Tasmania’s overall population could begin to decline from around 2030. The analysis also highlighted that in 2023-24, seven local government areas had already recorded a population decline.
In response to these demographic challenges, the state government is focusing on skilled migration to fill workforce gaps. Migration Tasmania has confirmed its skilled visa nomination places for 2026-27, with policy changes designed to give priority to applicants who have already established a long-term connection to the state through study and employment.
The original story that flagged these demographic shifts was reported by ABC News.